Bay of Plenty residents could expect a warmer and drier-than-usual spring, with a strong El Niño event expected to influence weather patterns through to the end of the year.
The latest seasonal outlook for October to December points to above-average temperatures and below-normal rainfall across the region, with more frequent westerly winds and periods of warm, dry weather.
Earth Sciences New Zealand (ESNZ) meteorologist Chester Lampkin said El Niño was already one of the main drivers of New Zealand’s weather.
“We are currently in a very strong El Niño, and El Niño has been probably the largest climate driver of our climate and weather patterns over the last couple of months and will be going into the early part of the summer,” Lampkin said.
The Bay of Plenty has a 50 per cent chance of above-average temperatures over the three months.
Rainfall is also tipped towards the drier side, with a 45 per cent chance of below-normal rainfall, compared with 35 per cent for near-normal rainfall and 20 per cent for above-normal rainfall.
Lampkin said the pattern was already evident in September.
“Overall, this was a pretty dry September, with most areas seeing about three quarters of what the usual rain is, and some areas even less than that, close to half.”
He expects the dry pattern and warmer temperatures to continue.
“There’s a good chance that temperatures will end up being above average for the Bay of Plenty, and again, drier than usual.”
But drier than usual does not mean no rain.
“We’ll still get rain, but we just won’t see as much rain as we usually do,” Lampkin said.
El Niño typically favours more frequent westerly airflows across New Zealand.
In the Bay of Plenty, that can mean stronger and gustier winds and warm, dry föhn conditions at times.
However, this does not mean every week will be dry or warm.
Northerly flows can still bring significant rainfall, while cooler periods can occur between warmer spells.
For the Bay of Plenty, soil moisture and river flows each have a 45 per cent chance of being below normal, compared with 40 per cent for near normal.
The north and east of the North Island are particularly likely to experience reduced rainfall, more frequent dry spells and increased drying of soils and vegetation.
Lampkin said the impacts were likely to build gradually.
“I think it’s important to sort of keep an eye on your water sources, especially if you are in a water-sensitive industry like agriculture, or if you depend on groundwater as your source of water.”
“It may not be impactful just yet. But as we go later into the spring towards the summer, dryness is likely to develop with this forecast.”
He encouraged people to plan ahead and continue monitoring conditions.
“It’s a good time to plan and kind of keep an eye on the everyday weather and these continued climate outlooks.”
The current El Niño is expected to peak in late spring or early summer and could be among the strongest on record.
The outlook said the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) has already exceeded 1997 values for this time of year and has undergone the fastest warming on record.
The combination of strong El Niño conditions, warmer temperatures and reduced rainfall could put increasing pressure on water availability and soil moisture as the region moves towards summer.
The outlook covers three months and does not predict exactly when individual dry spells, storms or heat events will occur.
For Eastern Bay communities, however, the combination of strong El Niño conditions, warmer temperatures and a tendency towards below-normal rainfall is an early warning that water and soil moisture could become increasingly important as spring progresses into summer.
Another seasonal climate outlook is expected in about a month.
Man Found as Search Continues for Missing Woman in Ōpōtiki
Whakatāne Water Services Consultation Postponed
Mountain View Rest Home to Get Warmer, Safer and More Energy-Efficient
