What Weather Can The Bay Expect This Autumn?

While La Niña has technically ended, the Bay of Plenty could still see tropical-like conditions over the coming months.

Earth Sciences New Zealand predicts above normal rainfall and above average temperatures in their seasonal climate outlook.  

Meteorologist Chester Lampkin said temperatures are likely to be some of the warmest in the country, although there will still be some cool spells.

“It is that autumn after all, so we have to be prepared for those changes,” he stated.

“When the country gets caught in these southwesterlies, that's when we're going to see these cool spells sort of spill over the entire country, but I think a lot of people in the Bay of Plenty can sit safely and say, oh yeah, we're probably going to have some of the best weather of the season.”

While specific events can't be predicted this far ahead, Lampkin said their outlook shows an increased chance of significant rain events.

“There is an increased chance of low pressure moving in from the north or some kind of tropical connection to the air masses on occasion for the next three months,” explained Lampkin.

This outlook jumps on the back of an interesting summer right across the country, where La Niña conditions dominated the weather cycle.

Low-pressure systems brought heavy rain events to both islands, seeing significant rainfall.

While the Western Bay of Plenty faced above-average rainfall, 149% greater than normal, the Eastern Bay saw between 80% and 119% of the total rainfall expected during summer.

However, the region has been knocked off its sunniest region throne, coming in at third with 535 sunshine hours.

Earth Sciences New Zealand said the country, as a whole, had an average summer temperature-wise, with an average temperature of 16.9°C.

The Bay of Plenty didn’t fall into this trend, sitting between 0.51°C and 1.20°C above average.

Lampkin said the outlook is an advanced look into the next three months, but “the weather can change very quickly, as we've seen time and time again here in New Zealand.”

“So you always have to stay up to date on the weather forecast and just know that a couple bad days is not the definition of the season.”